Ranking the best college football hires this offseason from best to worst

He was described as "a coaching vagabond" who lacked "the chops" to bring his new program "out of the conference basement and into the mix for bowl bids, let alone a division title."

That was the USA TODAY Sports breakdown three years ago of new Arizona coach Jedd Fisch, who came in dead last in the Power Five in a ranking of the new hires.

Oops. A few years later, Fisch has been revealed instead as one of the top hires of the cycle, along with Kansas coach Lance Leipold, Texas coach Steve Sarkisian and Tennessee coach Josh Heupel.

Hey, it just goes to show: The quality of these hires is almost impossible to predict in the moment.

With that in mind, let's take another crack at this year's moves and rank every new hire in the Bowl Subdivision. In this case, we're not going to include Northwestern's David Braun, who coached the Wildcats this entire season and was named the coach of the year in the Big Ten. (There is still one FBS opening in Troy.)

1. Bronco Mendenhall, New Mexico

He's a winner, pure and simple. Mendenhall has been very successful at two stops, Brigham Young and Virginia, reaching bowl eligibility in every non-COVID year of his coaching career outside of his debut season with the Cavaliers. Mendenhall is also a former New Mexico assistant under Rocky Long and brings deep familiarity with the program and the broader region. As one of the surest bets in coaching and a terrific ambassador for the program and athletics department, he's an absolute coup for the Lobos.

COACHING CAROUSEL:Who's been hired and fired this offseason

2. Willie Fritz, Houston

And speaking of home-run hires: Fritz brings to Houston an unimpeachable track record highlighted by a 23-4 mark across the past two seasons with one New Year's Six bowl victory against Southern California in the Cotton Bowl. Going all the way back to JUCO powerhouse Blinn College in the early 1990s, Fritz has put together inventive offenses that maximize talent. With the Cougars and in the Power Five, he'll have the chance to work with a higher caliber of athlete and make a run at the College Football Playoff.

3. Jon Sumrall, Tulane

While the track record is smaller compared to other names at the top of this list, Sumrall is one of the profession's rising stars after going 23-4 and winning a pair of Sun Belt championships in his two seasons at Troy. The former SEC assistant at Mississippi and Kentucky also spent three years as the co-defensive coordinator with the Green Wave.

4. Curt Cignetti, Indiana

History says Cignetti won't do much at Indiana, historically one of the most difficult places to win in the Power Five. Three or four years down the line, he might be the latest to try and fail to turn the Hoosiers into a consistent winner. But chew on this: Cignetti has been a head coach across multiple levels since 2011 − Division II, the Championship Subdivision and the FBS − and has yet to post a losing season. Most recently, he led James Madison to an incredibly successful two-year transition to the FBS, going 19-4 overall and finishing first in the Sun Belt East in both seasons.

5. Jonathan Smith, Michigan State

Smith flew way under the radar at Oregon State until the past two seasons, when the Beavers seemed to spend more weeks than not in the US LBM AFCA Coaches Poll. His commitment to a physical offense and ability to develop players will fit extremely well at Michigan State, which has to steer clear of quick fixes through the portal and build a roster that can compete with best programs in the Big Ten.

6. Mike Elko, Texas A&M

Elko's defensive pedigree is a breath of fresh air at A&M after the Aggies' run of failed hires arriving with an offensive background, with Jimbo Fisher the latest and most obvious example. He's a high-floor hire who can set the Aggies' baseline at eight wins while developing a stronger culture that should avoid the dips and lulls that have defined the program for nearly a generation.

7. Spencer Danielson, Boise State

Danielson is the latest Boise State assistant to get a crack at the top job, following Dan Hawkins, Chris Petersen, Bryan Harsin and Andy Avalos. He replaced Avalos late this past season and led the Broncos to the Mountain West championship. Danielson clearly has the respect of the locker room along with a high-energy style that provides a nice change of pace from the recent past.

8. Bob Chesney, James Madison

Chesney is an unknown on this level but has been viewed as one of the top coaches on the FCS level since early in his six-year tenure at Holy Cross. He went 44-21 with the Crusaders with four appearances in the FCS playoffs and five Patriot League crowns. Like Sumrall, Chesney is an up-and-coming coach stepping into a very strong situation at JMU.

9. Sean Lewis, San Diego State

Lewis had a rocky single season as the offensive coordinator under Deion Sanders at Colorado, eventually losing play-calling duties amid the Buffaloes' swoon following a strong start. But he proved himself at Kent State as a top offensive mind, meaning San Diego State might actually — gasp — have an offense that carries the load. Given the talent in his new backyard, Lewis could build something special on that side of the ball.

10. Manny Diaz, Duke

Diaz more than warranted another Power Five opportunity after turning Penn State's defense into one of the top units in the country. He went 21-15 with three bowl trips in as many years at Miami, giving him experience in the ACC, and could step right into Elko's shoes and keep the Blue Devils moving up the ladder in the conference standings.

11. Jeff Choate, Nevada

Choate has one of the most interesting résumés of any new hire. He got his FBS start as an assistant under Petersen at Boise State. He then spent four years as a Power Five assistant before another four seasons as head coach at Montana State, leading the Bobcats to a pair of FCS playoff appearances and a top-five finish in 2020. Add in the past three years under Steve Sarkisian at Texas and you get a very strong mix of experience across multiple levels of competition. While he takes on a pretty dire situation at Nevada, Choate seems very prepared for this opportunity.

12. Fran Brown, Syracuse

Brown comes to Syracuse after two seasons as the defensive backs coach under Kirby Smart at Georgia, and it's hard to top the seal of approval that comes from working at one of the top programs in the FBS. But he's background is more so under Nebraska coach Matt Rhule, who gave Brown his first shot as an on-field coach at Temple in 2013 and brought him along to Baylor in 2017. He knows how to build a program, in other words. And there's another thing he does as well as anyone: Brown is an elite recruiter who will really beef up the program's efforts in the transfer portal and with traditional recruits.

13. Jay Sawvell, Wyoming

Sawvell replaces Craig Bohl after spending the past four seasons as Wyoming's defensive coordinator. The Cowboys finished in the top three in the Mountain West in yards allowed per play twice in these four years, including a second-place finish this past season. There's always a big risk in hiring first-time coaches, but the coaches Sawvell has worked under helps to mitigate that risk. Since 2001, he's been a defensive assistant under some of the best in the business in Jerry Kill, Dave Clawson and Bohl.

14. Derek Mason, Middle Tennessee

Formerly the head coach at Vanderbilt and a well-regarded assistant at multiple Power Five stops, Mason will run a good, clean program and build solid-to-strong defenses, so this hire looks nice on paper. He also brings name recognition to MTSU and a new outlook after the program's long run under former coach Rick Stockstill. What direction the Blue Raiders take on offense will determine whether Mason's second round as a head coach goes better than his first.

15. Trent Bray, Oregon State

This was a smart hire in the moment for the Beavers, who faces an uncertain future given the demise of the Pac-12 and might not have attracted an extremely high caliber of candidates as Smith's replacement as a result. Bray did strong work as the Beavers defensive coordinator, has the support of the roster and is very aware of what it takes to win off the beaten path in Corvallis. But there are still some question marks about his ability to run his own program, which is only understandable.

16. Scotty Walden, Texas-El Paso

While only 34, Walden has already been a head coach at two different stops, East Texas Baptist State and Austin Peay, and was the interim coach at Southern Mississippi for most of the abbreviated 2020 season. But given how hard it can be to win at UTEP, the overall lack of experience is a concern. Still, Walden was born in Texas and went to school and started his career in the state, so he knows the area. And maybe being young is a very good thing: UTEP needs a spark.

17. Jeff Lebby, Mississippi State

Lebby should get the Mississippi State offense back in gear, at least. The former Oklahoma coordinator has also been embraced by a fan base reeling from Zach Arnett's failed one-year tenure. That's a good start. In the bigger picture, however, Lebby walks into the best conference in college football needing to prove that he can develop the culture necessary to offset the Bulldogs' inherent disadvantages compared to most of the SEC.

18. Bryant Vincent, Louisiana-Monroe

Vincent takes over one of the worst situations in the country at Louisiana-Monroe, owners of just one winning season since joining the FBS in 1994. He'll have to perform a borderline miracle to succeed where so many others have failed before. One thing you have to admire: Vincent played a big part in Alabama-Birmingham's rise from the ashes under former coach Bill Clark, so he knows a thing or two about winning under extremely adverse circumstances.